Snapshot of the Spanish Energy Deal pulse for FY2024: Resulting in lower transactional activity compared to 2023, driven by geopolitical and energy price uncertainties
In our latest report, LTM06-24, we analyzed transactional trends over the twelve months up to June 2024, highlighting that Q2 2024 was unusually weak compared to previous years. However, this drop in M&A activity was not mirrored at the European level.
Throughout the second half of 2024, several factors contributed to consolidating the slowdown observed in Q2, resulting in a year that closed with an approximate 37% decline in deal value and 20% fewer transactions compared to 2023. In contrast, the average deal size across Europe increased significantly (from €76.5 million in 2023 to €115 million) driven primarily by heightened activity in France and Italy.
Beyond international factors, certain domestic debates once thought to be closed have re-emerged that need to be addressed by the regulator to bring greater clarity and stability to the sector and, as a result, stimulate transaction activity.
Investments in emerging technologies continue to move forward, though their rollout has not followed the trajectory initially envisioned. Nevertheless, these technologies are expected to play a key role in energy transition.
Against a backdrop of global geopolitical uncertainty, the main challenge will be bringing projects to COD despite returns that may fall short of original expectations. Many players will need to reassess their strategies to adapt to the evolving market conditions.
2025 is expected to be an active year for the energy sector, where energy management strategies aimed at maximizing captured prices will become a key differentiator, particularly in the context of short-term hedging.
